THE TORTOISE AND THE HARE

Transcript:

According to the press, Barack Obama has already won the election.  He’s made the European victory-lap tour, on an Air Force One look-alike, in a chair labeled President Obama.  He’s even got a Presidential seal that looks like the Great Seal of the United States, complete with his own Latin motto.  The only thing left is a memorable, soaring Inaugural Address.

Not so fast. We still have almost a hundred days until the election. Although you’d never know it by watching the evening news or reading the papers, John McCain can still win.  How?

First, look at  the issues.  McCain staked out two major positions years ago  – on the Iraq War and the energy crisis – and hung tough.  They’re now the big issues in the election, and McCain was right on both.

Remember a year ago? Senate majority leader Harry Reid declared the Iraq War was lost. Barack Obama hammered Hillary Clinton for poor judgment because she initially voted for the War.  Almost everyone – pundits, Democrats, even many Republicans – demanded we pull out of Iraq, the sooner the better. Flying in the face of conventional wisdom, John McCain called for more troops, new generals and different rules of engagement.  Turns out he was right.  The surge has been such a success the only thing left to debate is how fast to bring the troops home.

Years ago, McCain earned his maverick stripes by bucking the Republican party to call our dependence on foreign oil an environmental and national security crisis.  He pushed for a comprehensive energy plan, including higher gas mileage requirements, renewable energies, clean coal, electric cars, nuclear power and more recently, offshore drilling and new oil refineries. McCain insists we should ‘try everything’, figuring not all of them will pan out, but all of them are worth a try. Senator Obama and Congressional Democrats have always found fault with a number of these ideas. But voters facing $4 and even $5 a gallon gas don’t want to hear a lot of excuses.

Second, fundraising.  Money has been called the Mother’s milk of politics, and the  press claim Obama has a substantial lead in fundraising. But they’re comparing apples to oranges.  The amount that matters  is Obama plus Democratic National Committee versus McCain plus Republican National committee monies, and those totals are about equal. The other number to watch is ‘cash on hand’, in other words the net rather than the gross sum.  McCain leads Obama in this category.

Third, polling.  Throughout the democratic primaries, the polling has been unusually inaccurate, especially in the New Hampshire race. This is the so-called Bradley effect, named for the African-American candidate who lost the 1982 California governor’s race, though polls had predicted him a sure winner. Some experts believe the tendency to overcount votes for an African-American candidate can be as high as 10 percentage points.  If this is true come November, an Obama lead in the polls could result in a McCain victory.  Furthermore, Obama did not get the expected ‘bounce’ in the polls from his trip to the Middle East and Europe; his numbers went down. all three national polls have the two candidates in a dead heat.

Fourth, the media. It’s commonly accepted that the majority of the media is pulling for Obama, and have given him favorable coverage. But politicians are like hot air balloons – what goes up must come down.  Some press have hinted an Obama backlash might be coming.  Media watchdog groups are starting to cry foul.

Last week, CBS anchor Katie Couric asked Senator Obama some tough questions about his Iraq policy, which didn’t show him to advantage.  This could be the first sign of the press reversing direction. So far they’ve been reluctant to grill Obama on the issues.  If they decide to trade in kid gloves for brass knuckles, they will force Senator Obama to go beyond generalities and get specific about his proposals.  Some voters, especially Reagan Democrats and Independents, may find his kind of ‘change’ isn’t what they had in mind. These voters may not love McCain, but if they sour on Obama, McCain will be an acceptable alternative.

This presidential election has been called everything from a beauty contest to a horse race to a marathon. But come November, it might be the race between the tortoise and the hare.  With short -legged, tough-hided McCain the turtle, and long -legged, big-eared Obama the rabbit.  Some people may act like Obama has already been elected, but the race isn’t over yet.  The tortoise is still plodding along.  And we all know who won that race.