Dealing with Iran

Transcript:

The most immediate and serious problem confronting the next President will not be the Iraq War, or even Afghanistan, but what to do about Iran. Thanks to the unbelievably successful Surge Strategy, the only issue remaining in the Iraq War is the timing of American troop withdrawal. It has taken far too long, and cost more in American lives and treasure than it should have, but the Iraq War will ultimately result in the US in turning over a democratic, stable, self-sufficient Iraqi government and military to the people of Iraq. Once that happens General Petraeus and his team can turn their attentions to Afghanistan. The lessons learned in Iraq, plus Gen. Petraeus’ own long history and experience in guerilla warfare and counterterrorism, can be brought to bear. It won’t be easy, but they know what is needed.

So that leaves Iran, which has no easy, or even difficult answers. Iran’s goal is nuclear weapons and the closer they get to having nuclear weapons capability, the higher their price will be to give it up. At some point, they could be unwilling to stop regardless of the carrots and sticks offered. Even the most conservative experts think Iran is two or three years away from having nuclear weapons.

There is increasing talk that Israel is considering an attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities in the next year. The Israelis have shown in the past – with Iraq in 1981 and Syria last fall – that that they will bomb rather than allow an enemy to develop nuclear weapons.

Some, including former UN Ambassador Bolton have suggested such an attack could come within the next six months. But an Israeli attack would be very difficult to carry out, and unlikely to be completely successful. Israeli aircraft would have to fly over Saudi Arabia or Iraq to get to Iran, The flight is over 1000 miles, and Iranian facilities are scattered around the country – which is the size of New England. Whatever the military outcome, such a attack would unify the entire Muslim world, and though it were an Israeli attack, the United States would be blamed. Though the military option should always be ‘on the table’ we must understand it is unlikely to be completely successful , or without severe consequences.

Some are advocating more diplomacy. But we have tried multilateral negotiations with Iran which have so far yielded nothing but delay and disappointment on our side. We have learned over the years that negotiations without leverage don’t work.

Some have advocated increased economic, trade and financial sanctions. The US is certainly willing, but unless Russia and Europe join with us, such sanctions are unlikely to have the effect we want, or certainly the immediate effect we need.

So let’s look to history for some answers. We had negotiations with NKorea over their nuclear program for years which were on again off again, with no progress. But once China got involved and pressed north korea, things moved quickly. China was the 800 pound gorilla in the negotiations. China is N Korea’s major ally, trading partner, donor, patron, neighbor. they couldn’t afford to alienate China. North Korea is now dismantling their nuclear program and weapons,

The problem is We don’t have anyone playing the China role with Iran.

So let’s look at libya. President Quadaffi had a nuclear weapon program we had tried to get them to stop for years. As with Nor Korea, the negotiations with Libya had dragged on again off again for years. But in March 2003, once it was clear the US would go into Iraq after Afghanistan, the Libyans started serious negotiations. A few months later the picture of Saddam Hussein was splashed across the world – a prisoner with a scruffy beard which American doctors were picking through looking for lice – a once powerful leader reduced to hiding out in a hole in the ground. Libyan President Quaddafi must have worried he would be next. The libyans stopped their nuclear program within days of Saddam’s capture.

For the last few years while we were bogged down in Iraq the Iranians had little incentive to negotiate with us. Now that the surge has worked, the Iranians might be. But they might not be too. They might also be buying time, or playing rope a dope while they continue their nuclear program. We should hear what they have to say, but not back down on increased sanctions, or pull out of Iraq. And whatever happens in the next few months, the new President will find Iran his most intractable problem.