Russia’s Back and China’s Arrived

Transcript:

The news cycle these days seems to be moving so fast we hardly have time to digest one event before we’re racing off to another. Just a few days ago we were cheering as American swimmer Michael Phelps break records at the Beijing Olympics, and then watched with grim horror as Russian tanks rolled into Georgia. Then we were off to the Conventions, to watch presidential candidates orate and political pundits pontificate. It’s exhilarating, but it’s also a little dangerous, because it doesn’t allow the importance of events to sink in before whisking our eyeballs off in another direction.

So let’s rewind for a minute, because Russia and China will have as much impact on the world over the next few years as America’s new president. Seemingly overnight China has burst onto the world stage – its near miraculous rates of economic growth, a culture that emphasizes the ancient as well as the modern, and the promise it holds for making the 21st century the Chinese century. Fifty years ago China was a backward, thirdworld country which couldn’t even feed its people. Over 30 million Chinese died during their great famine of the 1950s. But a lot has happened in five decades, and that image no longer holds true. Winston Churchill once said of China, “Beware the sleeping dragon. For when she awakes the Earth will shake.” With the Beijing Olympics, China demonstrated to the world that the dragon is stirring.

But no sooner did we marvel at the opening ceremonies of the Olympics, than we were flashed images of Russian tanks and aircraft invading a sovereign neighbor. In scenes worthy of a World War II movie, we saw fleeing women and children, and bombed out buildings. The Russian army, which a decade ago was in tatters, moved with blitzkrieg-like speed through Georgia, reminiscent of Hitler march through the Sudetenland in 1938. The world may have thought the Cold War was over, but Russia seems intent on rolling back their losses of the 1980’s and 1990’s, and reestablishing domination of its ‘near abroad’.

Today Georgia….tomorrow… Ukraine? Poland? Perhaps not, but the lesson will not be lost on them. Actions speak louder than words. If the Russians can conquer Georgia with little more consequence than a slap on the wrist, doesn’t it behoove Russia’s other neighbors to be more accommodating? What about the rest of Europe? They may not be fear Russia’s military, but they’re dependent on Russia’s energy exports. Europe gets the majority of its natural gas from Russia and Russian pipelines, and cannot risk disrupting that flow. As Russia demonstrated when it cut off gas to Ukraine in 2005, it is willing to use its energy weapon to make a point. As winter months approach, the Russian’s energy stranglehold on Europe will likely mitigate any retaliatory measures the Europeans might contemplate.

Like many things in this world, Foreign Policy and world affairs seem to go in cycles. The 1970’s were dominated by triangular diplomacy between the US, China and the former Soviet Union. Other international events in that era, NATO versus the Warsaw Pact, the Vietnam war, the arms race, and the Arab-Israeli conflict, were extensions of that dynamic. This next decade will likely see a return to triangular diplomacy, with the US, Russia and China once again vying to define their relationships to each other. Natural resources – especially energy and food – will be as critical as alliances, military arsenals, and foreign investment were thirty years ago. Russia’s natural gas and oil reserves have put them once again in a strong position, giving them financial reserves, as well as economic power and political with countries that need their energy supplies. For the last twenty years every aspect of China’s domestic and foreign policy was enlisted to support its economic development. In the years ahead China will clamor for an ever larger share of the world resources to sustain that phenomenal economic growth, willing to overlook other aspects of their relations with countries so long as they keep the oil flowing.

Once again, it’s a dangerous world for America. Russia is back and China has arrived. Hopefully, the new American president has the experience and wisdom to guide us through this new era. Because this time, he’s not the only one calling the shots.