Russia, China and the U.S.

Which country will grab the headlines in 2009?

Transcript:

Detroit may have its Big Three automakers, but Geopolitics has its own big three — Russia, China and the U.S. and they’ll grab headlines in 2009, too.

First in the news will be a Resurgent Russia. It wants its superpower status back and higher oil prices gives them the cash and clout to do so. Unless crude prices fall and stay there, Russia is poised for a comeback.

Their first move will come with Ukraine this winter. Russia controls their energy and can leave them shivering in the dark by just turning off the gas.

Prediction: Expect Ukraine to drop plans for NATO membership and slip steadily back into Russia’s orbit. And expect Europe, which generates most of its electricity from Russian gas imports, to go along with it.

Towards the end of the year expect to see trouble in China. The phenomenal growth China has enjoyed for the last decade is about the come to a screeching halt as the world’s economy slows and demands for the label “made in China” drop. China has to create 20 million jobs a year for new graduates. Two hundred million of China’s workers are migrants. What happens when those jobs don’t materialize?

Prediction: Expect social unrest in China, especially toward the end of 2009. The Chinese government will restore social order, but there could be a period where the world watches another Tiananmen Square-type incident.

And the story that keeps on giving with be right here at home – the American economy. Within weeks, Washington will be faced with a choice of bailing out industry after troubled industry – or refusing to do and watch them either reform or go under.

Bailouts will be easier in the short term – but will spell our long term economic decline, as American industries fail to remain competitive.

If we take tough steps now and companies are forced to reinvent themselves – we’ll unleash what America’s good at – innovation, invention and ingenuity.

Prediction: Who knows? Can Washington summon up the courage to do the right thing even if it’s unpopular? You tell me!

That’s DEFCON 3 by KT and I’m KT McFarland