Can Obama Keep His Promises on Af/Pak?

President Obama’s new policy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, or AfPak as it’s now known, is bound to drive the anti war left and neo con right wingers crazy – because it both broadens and narrows the war.

First – Obama has expanded the war to include Pakistan, acknowledging the unspoken reality that Al Qaeda has set up shop over the Pakistan border, and we need to follow them there to defeat them.

But he’s also limited the war’s goal – to disrupt, dismantle and defeat Al Qaeda – and nothing more.  No nation building, no democracy evangelism. It avoids making the mistake that Bush made with Iraq – mission creep.

Bush’s greatest mistake was he kept expanding our goals in Iraq. First it was to destroy their WMD, then to topple Saddam Hussein, and finally to create a secure and self -sustaining democracy.  Yet he never  added the resources necessary to keep pace with these changing missions.  It wasn’t until Secretary Gates and General Petraeus came on board that we changed tactics and put in enough troops to turn things around in Iraq.

Obama is on the right course; the question now is whether he can make good on his promises.  Is he willing to increase foreign aid and defense spending in order to pay for these new programs? Will Congress and the US public pony up for the bill, especially in hard economic times?

And, what happens if the Af/Pak War does not go according to plan? What if the Afghan tribes do NOT turn against Al Qaeda?  What if Pakistan’s civilian government crumbles and is incapable of rooting out Al Qaeda, even with our help? What if popular support at home wanes as American casualties and the price of victory mounts? What if world public opinion turns against us? Do we just pick up and come home?

For now, we should give President Obama and his national security team our support.  They have a good starting plan. But the one thing I learned in my years at the White House and Pentagon is that wars rarely turn out they way you planned them. It’s not what you do, but what you do next that counts.