How do we get out of Afghanistan while making sure Al Qaeda doesn’t return?

TRANSCRIPT

The war in Afghanistan is finally getting serious. Eight years ago we destroyed 95% of Al Qaeda and then managed to flub killing the crucial remaining 5% – so Bin Ladin and the ragtag remnants of Al Qaeda escaped out clutches and decamped to Pakistan, where they remain today.

But we’re still in Afghanistan. So how do we get out and leave Afghanistan to Afghanis – while making sure Al Qaeda doesn’t return?

The Marjah offensive is our last chance to get this war right. We’ve finally put in enough troops to make a difference. We’ve finally realized that civilian casualties today mean more people fighting against us tomorrow. We’ve finally trained up enough Afghan National Army to fight alongside us.

Gen McChrystal’s plan for Afghanistan is like Gen. Petraeus’ was in Iraq – to clear, hold and build. First, US, British and Afghan Army forces clear the Taliban out of southern Afghanistan. Then we hold and build – something we’ve never done before: “We’ve got a government in a box, ready to roll in,” says Gen. McChrystal. In the past we’d clear the area, then head back to headquarters while the Taliban bided their time – only to return once the coast was clear.

Will it work? Maybe, but in the end it won’t be up to us. It will be up to the Afghan government to make peace with the tribal leaders, keep the Taliban from returning, govern effectively.

But it’s a long shot. So far the Karzai government has been both corrupt and incompetent and content to let Americans do the fighting for them. Will they change? Can they? Only time will tell.

But, as Gen. Petraeus says, putting the Afghan war on a timeline is aimed at the Karzai government – that nothing focuses the mind so much as the threat of our imminent departure. Ultimately we’ve got to cut the umbilical cord.