Transcript
Several think tanks have recently been war gaming what a Israel/iran
war would look like. The scenario starts this way – Israel, convinced
there is no way to stop iran’s nuclear program, and that a nuclear
iran threatens the very existence of the state of Israel, launches a
preemptive air strike against iran’s nuclear sites. Knowing it’s
unlikely to get approval or assistance from the Obama Administration,
especially given the recent tensions in the US-Israeli relationship,
Israel goes it alone.

In one war game, organized by the Brookings Institution, Israel
succeeds in wiping out six of Iran’s key sites and sets back the
Iranian nuclear weapons program several years. Israel judges the
attack a success.

But then all hell breaks loose. In hopes of containing the crisis,
President Obama tries to prevent the conflict from escalating, and
tries to negotiate with Iran, while at the same time reinforcing US
forces in the region. Despite Obama’s repeated attempts to placate
Iran in the past, Iran blames the US for the attack, refuses to talk.

Instead, Iran attacks Israel, both directly and through Hezbollah and
Hamas, its proxy militias in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. Iran
unleashes sleeper terrorist cells in Europe, and attacks Saudi oil
refineries.

Iran, interpreting President Obama’s willingness to negotiate as signs
of weakness, mines the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through
which some 40% of the world’s oil exports pass, and which the US Fifth
Fleet protects. A clash ensues and The Obama Administration responds
by reinforcing America’s presence in the Gulf.

There are several other war games of an Israeli-Iran war. They have
different scenarios, but the common thread games is that things
quickly spin out of control, and draw in other countries, both in the
region and out. We are quickly approaching the point where these war
games could become reality.

TRANSCRIPT
The cardinal sin of foreign affairs is to see other countries through your own eyes. You have to look at things through their eyes, to see the world as they see it to make sense of a situation.

If you’re Israel what are you seeing? For a long time we saw eye to eye. A hostile Arab world bent on destroying Israel. A rock-solid Israeli-American relationship, with the US defending Israel at all costs.

What is Israel seeing now?

A more belligerent Iran, which is moving full speed ahead on a nuclear weapons program; testing long-range missiles and enriching uranium at increased rates.

A fiery, charismatic Iranian President rachetting up the rhetoric about wiping Israel off the face of the earth.

A looming nuclear arms race in the Middle East if Iran does go nuclear, as moderate Arab states rush to acquire nuclear stockpiles of their own.
Iran’s proxy militaries, Hezbollah and Hamas, rearming on its borders, stockpiling missiles and armaments, preparing for another war.

What is Israel seeing from the US? A new American President who, in his zeal to reach out to the Arab Muslim world, seems less committed to Israel.

Last year President Obama broke with tradition and visited the Middle East without going to Israel. He recently met the Israeli President at the White House but refused to have their picture taken together, and broke in the middle of meetings to have dinner – with the Israelis.

Obama makes speeches about stopping Iran’s nuclear program, but is dragging his feet on imposing crippling sanctions, preferring to deal through the decidedly anti-Israel UN.

So, if you’re Israel, and questioning whether America still has your back, you might be thinking what you’ll have to do if you’re forced to go it alone. And that spells trouble.