At nearly the same moment, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced that the perennial talks between Israel and the Palestinians are set to begin anew; talks which would result in “the emergence of an independent, democratic and viable Palestinian state living side by side in peace and security with Israel and its other neighbors.” And, Secretary Clinton assures us, these talks “can be completed within one year.”

This fixation with a one-year timetable is not a coincidence. It’s the Obama administration’s plan to deal with Iran. They think the road to Tehran runs through Jerusalem.

The Obama administration, and the Bush administration before it, failed to derail Iran’s nuclear weapons program. So we’re now watching a train wreck in slow motion. The United States (and Israel) will have to come to grips, within the year, of either bombing Iran or letting Iran get the bomb. Either one will be a disaster.

If we (or Israel) bomb Iran, it will ignite a regional war, as Iran inevitably retaliates. It could do any or all of the following: give Hezbollah and Hamas the green light to launch their large stockpiles missiles on every square mile of Israel; unleash sleeper terrorist cells in Europe and the U.S.; and mine the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of all worldwide oil shipments flow. The price of oil would skyrocket to $400-500 a barrel overnight, and plunge the world into another, even more serious recession. At the same time, the world’s oil producing states would reap windfall profits.

The job of sweeping the Strait free of mines would fall to the U.S. Fifth Fleet in the Persian Gulf, thus drawing the U.S. into a third war in the region. And, as Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mullen has said, even a successful bombing raid on Iran’s nuclear sites wouldn’t stop their program, but only set it back a few years.

On the other hand, if we don’t stop Iran’s nuclear program, the entire Middle East will be swept into an arms race – a nuclear arms race. Neighboring Sunni Arab states will not stand idly by and let Shiite Persian Iran dominate the region. They will rush to “nuke up,” too. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty won’t be worth the paper it’s printed on – in the Middle East or anywhere else. And, if the single most volatile, dangerous part of the world is awash in nuclear weapons, it is only a matter of time before one gets detonated – accidentally, intentionally or inadvertently.

So, what’s the Obama administration’s plan to deal with these horrors? Officially, they say the military option remains on the table. But almost no one believes they mean it, least of all the nations in the region.

Instead, the administration thinks they can contain Iran, and manage the situation. First, they think if they extend America’s nuclear umbrella over the region, the Sunni states will no longer think it’s necessary to acquire their own nuclear weapons. And in the bizarre world of nuclear theory, the administration thinks Iran will be deterred from ever using its nuclear weapons by the threat that America might use its nuclear weapons in retaliation to an Iranian attack. This raises the question of how credible Obama’s promise to trade Tel Aviv for Texas might be, which is what extending the nuclear umbrella would mean.

The administration also plans, as one administration official told me, to force an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement and thereby “change the trajectory” in the Middle East away from war and towards peace and economic development. According to this plan, an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement would clock in just ahead of a nuclear Iran, and thereby make Iran, even a nuclear Iran, increasingly irrelevant in the region.

This raises the question of how easy it’s going to be to force the Israelis and Palestinians to reach an agreement that both sides would honor. It is an issue that has proved illusive since the creation of the Israeli state in 1948, and bedeviled the region for millennia. Secretary Clinton should know better than to predict an agreement in a year’s time. President Clinton came closest to forging a peace agreement and nearly succeeded, only to have the Palestinians renege in the 11th hour. And even if the administration were able to force an agreement, what guarantees are there that Hamas would honor any deal signed by its Palestinian adversary Fatah?

If containing a nuclear Iran is such a long shot — as surely the administration must know even if officials won’t admit it publicly — then why come out now with this one-year timetable and reassurances that a year is a long period of time? Because in the end, Team Obama thinks the greatest threat to peace in the region comes not from Iran, even a nuclear Iran, but from Israel and a pre-emptive attack on Iran’s nuclear sites.

So, the Palestinians set a trap for Israel and they sailed right into it. Israeli SEALs boarded a ship in a Turkish flotilla supposedly carrying humanitarian supplies and were promptly knifed and clubbed by the so-called “peace activists” aboard. They didn’t use guns, but knives and steel pipes – which look harmless in the after-action photos. So does their cargo of the teddy bears,diapers and wheelchairs.

But not so the Israeli SEALs, who killed nine of the ship’s passengers in the melee. The UN moved speedily to condemn Israel. So did Turkey, Israel’s onetime ally in the region, which has now turned its sights to a bigger role in the Muslim world. So far President Obama has been neutral, condemning “violence” in general.

But the Palestinians have inched one step closer in their ultimate goal — to separate the White House from Israel and then provoke a war. They’ll settle for the U.S. remaining neutral in the Arab-Israeli disputes; so far they’re close.

What happens when the next “peace flotilla” leaves Turkey bound for Gaza? Will the Israelis seize and search it? Will it end in more violence and condemnations of Israel? Or will Israel ultimately be forced to bow to world public opinion and end its blockade? Will Obama move from neutrality to condemnation?

The next few ships to challenge the blockade will likely be filled with more children’s toys and baby formula. But once the blockade is broken, those ships will be filled with missiles, weapons and ammunition bound for Hezbollah and Hamas.

But this isn’t really about Israel and the Palestinians. It’s about Iran and nuclear weapons and the Obama’s credibility in the region. After assuring the Israelis for the last year that they’re going to stop Iran’s nuclear weapons program with diplomacy and sanctions, they’ve privately resigned themselves to a nuclear Iran, saying Team Obama can contain it. They figure to force an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal that will turn the tide in the Middle East away from conflict.

The plan makes no sense to anyone other than Team Obama. The Iranians don’t want it, the Israelis don’t believe it, and the Palestinians are itching for another fight. Meanwhile the President keeps making those eloquent speeches that increasingly nobody believes. And the clouds of war are gathering.

Transcript:

This is DEFCON 3 by KT, and I’m KT McFarland

Recently, a CIA-operated drone aircraft targeted and killed Pakistan’s public enemy number one, Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud. A few weeks before, they killed Osama bin-Ladin’s son.

Mehsud was one of the nastiest characters on the planet. He was behind Benazir Bhutto’s assassination in 2007….  mastermind of the wave of suicide bombings in Pakistani cities….. godfather to a new type of suicide bomber — young children strapped with explosives and sent out to die.

Mehsud’s number one goal? to seize Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and destroy the White House, New York and London. It’s good that he’s gone.

But the way he was killed is important too.  He was targeted for months, by American Predator drones flying high and out of site,  like a modern, mechanical bird of prey, watching and waiting for a clear shot. And Mehsud knew it. By the time he was killed he was moving every hour and never out of a house or a car or a cave for more than a few minutes.

When Mehsud did venture out of doors, onto the rooftop of his father-in-law’s house, he was immediately killed by what must have seemed like a lightening bolt from the heavens.

What Mehsud’s death, and the recent death of Usama bin-Laden’s son, tells every other terrorist leader is: you can run, but you can’t hide. We have finally found a way to turn the tables: you are the ones who now have something to fear, you are the ones who can be attacked without notice.

The War on Terrorism is by no means over. We remain the number one target of a lethal band of Islamic jihadists bent on our destruction.  But we now have a way to hunt them down and, one by one, to destroy them.

This is DEFCON 3 by KT and I’m KT MCFArland

Does this open the door to serious negotiations over North Korea’s nuclear program? Or is this merely North Korea’s attempt to buy some goodwill from President Obama?

Transcript:

Remember Star Wars? Not the movie, but Reagan’s dream to build a missile shield to protect us from Soviet nuclear weapons?  In the end we put missile defense on the back burner, because the Soviet Union collapsed.

But we need to bring it back now – not only to protect against Russian missiles – but to shield us from the what could be a new generation of nuclear powers – North Korea, Iran, and possibly even Pakistan if the Islamic radicals seize power.

North Korea’s recent missile tests show it will soon have the ability to strike Alaska and Hawaii.  It’s nuclear tests show it has can make the bomb. Iran’s missile long-range missiles can reach Israel and parts of Europe. Iran’s nuclear weapons program is progressing and they already have enough enriched uranium to build one bomb.

Most experts believe both countries will have nuclear weapons and long-range missiles capable of carrying them before the end of president Obama’s first term.

That’s why we need to start a US missile shield program now, so we have the time to research, build and deploy it before rouge states go nuclear.

But what has the president Obama done? He’s CUT spending on missile defense by 1.6 billion dollars! He’s reducing the program when he should be increasing it.  He hopes to rely on diplomacy to convince the north Koreans and Iranians to stop their nuclear programs. What if diplomacy fails, as all his efforts have so far?

The reality is, within a few years, North Korea could launch a nuclear attack that would reach American cities in thirty minutes.   We currently have NO adequate defense against it.

Billions more for Detroit, billions for wall street bankers, billions for bad mortgages. But cutbacks to defend us against nuclear attack? That’s just crazy.

This is DEFCON 3 by KT and I’m KT McFarland